Total annual sales as a percent decline from the prior cycle peak. Drawdowns are negative; zero indicates a fresh peak. The chart isolates the depth and duration of every U.S. housing-cycle bear market in the modern record.
We track the running peak of total annual U.S. home sales (new + existing) and report each subsequent year as a percent decline from that peak. When sales make a new high, the drawdown resets to zero.
Three U.S. housing cycles have produced drawdowns of -40% or worse: 1978 (Volcker, -45% trough), 2005 (subprime, -45% trough), and the ongoing 2021–2024 rate-lock cycle (-31% so far).
units, K or Mmedian, current $30-yr fixed, % APRCensusNARFreddie MacNBER monthly