Cycle analysis · 1968–2024

U.S. Housing Sales Cycle — Drawdowns from Peak

Total annual sales as a percent decline from the prior cycle peak. Drawdowns are negative; zero indicates a fresh peak. The chart isolates the depth and duration of every U.S. housing-cycle bear market in the modern record.

Source Census · NAR (computed) Series Drawdown from peak Frequency Annual Range 1968 – 2024

About the Data

Three federal series, one continuous record.

We track the running peak of total annual U.S. home sales (new + existing) and report each subsequent year as a percent decline from that peak. When sales make a new high, the drawdown resets to zero.

Notable Cycles

Four genuine peaks, four wholly different recoveries.

Three U.S. housing cycles have produced drawdowns of -40% or worse: 1978 (Volcker, -45% trough), 2005 (subprime, -45% trough), and the ongoing 2021–2024 rate-lock cycle (-31% so far).

Definitions

Salesunits, K or M
Pricemedian, current $
Rate30-yr fixed, % APR
SAARCensus
EHSNAR
PMMSFreddie Mac
RecessionNBER monthly