Short answer. Annual average 30-year fixed mortgage rates were below 4% from 2012 to 2021 — ten consecutive years. The lowest reading in that span was 2.96% in 2021.
Mortgage rates dropped below 4% in 2012 and stayed there for ten years, until the Federal Reserve's 2022 hiking cycle drove them back above 5% in March 2022 and back above 6% by November 2022.
The full sub-4% run
- 2012: 3.66%
- 2013: 3.98%
- 2014: 4.17% — briefly above 4%, taper-tantrum-driven
- 2015: 3.85%
- 2016: 3.65%
- 2017: 3.99%
- 2018: 4.54% — back above 4% briefly
- 2019: 3.94%
- 2020: 3.11%
- 2021: 2.96% — record low
- 2022: 5.34% — back above 4% (and stayed there)
The lock-in legacy
Roughly 40% of U.S. mortgaged owners hold loans below 3%, and 76% hold loans below 5%. The arithmetic of refinancing or trading up is so unfavorable at current rates that listing inventory has stayed near multi-decade lows.
Sources
U.S. Census Bureau Survey of Construction; National Association of Realtors Existing Home Sales report; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee.